Mark-recapture estimators for dual frame population size of prominent nesting structures: the effect of uncertain detection probability

The combined mark-recapture and line transect sampling methodology proposed by Alpizar-Jara and Pollock [Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 3(4), 311–327, 1996; In Marine Mammal Survey and Assessment Methods Symposium. G.W. Garner, S.C. Amstrup, J.L. Laake, B.F.J. Manly, L.L. McDonald, and D.C. Robertson (Eds.), A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, Netherlands, pp. 99–114, 1999] is used to illustrate the estimation of population size for populations with prominent nesting structures (i.e., bald eagle nests). In the context of a bald eagle population, the number of nests in a list frame corresponds to a pre-marked sample of nests, and an area frame corresponds to a set of transect strips that could be regularly monitored. Unlike previous methods based on dual frame methodology using the screening estimator [Haines and Pollock (Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 5, 245–256, 1998a; Survey Methodology, 24(1), 79–88, 1998b)], we no longer need to assume that the area frame is complete (i.e., all the nests in the sampled sites do not need to be seen). One may use line transect sampling to estimate the probability of detection in a sampled area. Combining information from list and area frames provides more efficient estimators than those obtained by using data from only one frame. We derive an estimator for detection probability and generalize the screening estimator. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of the Chapman modification of the Lincoln–Petersen estimator to the screening estimator. Simulation results show that although the Chapman estimator is generally less precise than the screening estimator, the latter can be severely biased in presence of uncertain detection. The screening estimator outperforms the Chapman estimator in terms of mean squared error when detection probability is near 1 wheareas the Chapman estimator outperforms the screening estimator when detection probability is lower than a certain threshold value depending on particular scenarios.     

EVALUATION OF ROSGEN'S STREAMBANK EROSION POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA1

ABSTRACT: In this study three components of the Rosgen Level III Stream Reach Condition Assessment were tested for their ability to predict short-term erosion rates. Rosgen's bank erosion potential (BEP) ratings and near bank stress (NBS) estimates and the Pfankuch channel stability ratings were evaluated. Thirty-six banks with a range of BEP ratings and NBS estimates were selected on the 101 km Upper Illinois River in northeast Oklahoma. The Upper Illinois River is a meandering, gravel-dominated, riffle/pool channel. Cumulative erosion data measured with bank pins after four 2.0 to 2.5-year return period flows from September 1996 to July 1997 were used in the analyses. When integrated as indicated in Rosgen (1996), the BEP indices and NBS estimates were poor predictors of bank erosion. Individually, the grouped BEP ratings and Pfankuch ratings performed relatively well compared to grouped NBS estimates in predicting erosion; however, the variability of erosion was large within each rating group. Linear regression between erosion and BEP numerical indices and Pfankuch scores was significant (a = 0.05), but variability was high (illustrated by low r² values). Regression between erosion and NBS estimates was not significant.     

Attitudes and Perceptions about Ecological Resources and Hazards of People Living Aroung the Savannah River Site

Although considerable attention is devoted to environmental monitoring and assessment with respect to both pollutants and the status of particular plant or animal populations, less attention is devoted to assessing people's attitudes about the relative importance of ecological resources. In this paper we examine the attitudes and perceptions about ecological resources of people living around the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS), in South Carolina. Our overall hypothesis is that people who are directly affected by the possible outcomes and consequences of a particular hazard (i.e., those people employed at SRS) will undervalue the risks and overvalue the potential benefits from future land uses that favor continued site activity, compared to people who live near but are not employed at SRS. We interviewed 286 people attending the Aiken Trials horse show on 14 March 1997. There were few gender differences, although men hunted and fished more than women, women ranked three environmental concerns as more severe than did men, and women were more concerned about the effect of SRS on property values. Maintenance of SRS as a National Environmental Research Park ranked first as a future land use; nuclear production ranked second, followed by hunting and hiking. Only residential development ranked very low as a future land use. There were many differences as a function of employment history at SRS: 1) people who work at SRS think that the federal government should spend funds to clean up all nuclear facilities, and they think less money should be spent on other environmental problems than did non-employees, 2) people who work at SRS ranked continued current uses of SRS higher than did people who never worked at SRS, and 3) people who work at SRS are less concerned about the storage of nuclear material or accidents at the site than are people who never worked at the site.     

Spatial PM2.5 mobile source impacts using a calibrated indicator method

Motor vehicles are major sources of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), and the PM_2.5 from mobile vehicles is associated with adverse health effects. Traditional methods for estimating source impacts that employ receptor models are limited by the availability of observational data. To better estimate temporally and spatially resolved mobile source impacts on PM_2.5, we developed an approach based on a method that uses elemental carbon (EC), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen oxide (NO_x) measurements as an indicator of mobile source impacts. We extended the original integrated mobile source indicator (IMSI) method in three aspects. First, we generated spatially resolved indicators using 24-hr average concentrations of EC, CO, and NO_x estimated at 4 km resolution by applying a method developed to fuse chemical transport model (Community Multiscale Air Quality Model [CMAQ]) simulations and observations. Second, we used spatially resolved emissions instead of county-level emissions in the IMSI formulation. Third, we spatially calibrated the unitless indicators to annually-averaged mobile source impacts estimated by the receptor model Chemical Mass Balance (CMB). Daily total mobile source impacts on PM_2.5, as well as separate gasoline and diesel vehicle impacts, were estimated at 12 km resolution from 2002 to 2008 and 4 km resolution from 2008 to 2010 for Georgia. The total mobile and separate vehicle source impacts compared well with daily CMB results, with high temporal correlation (e.g., R ranges from 0.59 to 0.88 for total mobile sources with 4 km resolution at nine locations). The total mobile source impacts had higher correlation and lower error than the separate gasoline and diesel sources when compared with observation-based CMB estimates. Overall, the enhanced approach provides spatially resolved mobile source impacts that are similar to observation-based estimates and can be used to improve assessment of health effects.

Implications: An approach is developed based on an integrated mobile source indicator method to estimate spatiotemporal PM_2.5 mobile source impacts. The approach employs three air pollutant concentration fields that are readily simulated at 4 and 12 km resolutions, and is calibrated using PM_2.5 source apportionment modeling results to generate daily mobile source impacts in the state of Georgia. The estimated source impacts can be used in investigations of traffic pollution and health.     

Ozone exposure among Mexico City outdoor workers

In researching health effects of air pollution, pollutant levels from fixed-site monitors are commonly assigned to the subjects. However, these concentrations may not reflect the exposure these individuals actually experience. A previous study of ozone (O3) exposure and lung function among shoe-cleaners working in central Mexico City used fixed-site measurements from a monitoring station near the outdoor work sites as surrogates for personal exposure. The present study assesses the degree to which these estimates represented individual exposures. In 1996, personal O3 exposures of 39 shoe-cleaners working outdoors were measured using an active integrated personal sampler. Using mixed models, we assessed the relationship between measured personal O3 exposure and ambient O3 measurements from the fixed-site monitoring station. Ambient concentrations were approximately 50 parts per billion higher, on average, than personal exposures. The association between personal and ambient O3 was highly significant (mixed model slope p < 0.0001). The personal/ambient ratio was not constant, so use of the outdoor monitor would not be appropriate to rank O3 exposure and evaluate health effects between workers. However, the strong within-worker longitudinal association validates previous findings associating day-to-day changes in fixed-site O3 levels with adverse health effects among these shoe-cleaners and suggests fixed-site O3 monitors may adequately estimate exposure for other repeated-measure health studies of outdoor workers.     

Characterisation of esterases as potential biomarkers of pesticide exposure in the lugworm Arenicola marina (Annelida: Polychaeta)

Here, we identify and characterise cholinesterase (ChE) and carboxylesterase (CbE) activities in the body tissues of the sediment dwelling worm Arenicola marina. Exposure to the organophosphorus pesticide azamethiphos yielded an in vitro IC50 of 5 microg l(-1) for propionylcholinesterase (PChE). PChE was significantly inhibited in vivo after a 10 day exposure to 100 microg l(-1) azamethiphos, equivalent to the recommended aquatic application rate (ANOVA; F=2.75, P=0.033). To determine sensitivity to environmental conditions, A. marina were exposed for 10 days to field collected sediments. PChE activity was significantly lower in worms exposed to sediments from an estuary classified to be at high risk from point source pollution by the UK Environment Agency (ANOVA; F=15.33, P<0.001). Whilst causality cannot be directly attributed from these latter exposures, they provide an important illustration of the potential utility of esterase activity as a biomarker of environmental quality in this ecologically relevant sentinel species.     

Source apportionment of fine particulate matter in the southeastern United States

Particulate matter (PM) less than 2.5 microm in size (PM2.5) source apportionment by chemical mass balance receptor modeling was performed to enhance regional characterization of source impacts in the southeastern United States. Secondary particles, such as NH4HSO4, (NH4)2SO4, NH4NO3, and secondary organic carbon (OC) (SOC), formed by atmospheric photochemical reactions, contribute the majority (>50%) of ambient PM2.5 with strong seasonality. Source apportionment results indicate that motor vehicle and biomass burning are the two main primary sources in the southeast, showing relatively more motor vehicle source impacts rather than biomass burning source impacts in populated urban areas and vice versa in less urbanized areas. Spatial distributions of primary source impacts show that each primary source has distinctively different spatial source impacts. Results also find impacts from shipping activities along the coast. Spatiotemporal correlations indicate that secondary particles are more regionally distributed, as are biomass burning and dust, whereas impacts of other primary sources are more local.     

Single-source impact analysis using three-dimensional air quality models

Isolating the effects of an individual emissions source on secondary air pollutants such as ozone and some components of particulate matter must incorporate complex nonlinear processes, be sensitive to small emissions perturbations, and account for impacts that may occur hundreds of kilometers away. The ability to evaluate these impacts is becoming increasingly important for efficient air quality management. Here, as part of a recent compliance enforcement action for a violation of the Clean Air Act and as an evaluation of ozone response to single-source emissions plumes, two three-dimensional regional photochemical air quality models are used to assess the impact on ozone from approximately 2000 to 3000 excess t/month of nitrogen oxides emitted from a single power plant in Ohio. Periods in May, July, and August are evaluated. Two sensitivity methods are applied: the "brute-force" (B-F) method and the decoupled direct method (DDM). Using DDM, maximum 1-hr averaged ozone concentrations are found to increase by up to 1.8, 1.3, and 2.2 ppbv during May, July, and August episodes, respectively, and concentration increases greater than 0.5 ppbv occur in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New York, West Virginia, Virginia, and North and South Carolina. B-F results for the August episode show a maximum 1-hr averaged ozone concentration increase of 2.3 ppbv. Significant localized decreases are also simulated, with a maximum of 3.6 ppbv in Ohio during the August episode and decreases of 0.50 ppbv and greater in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, and Virginia. Maximum increases are compared with maximum decreases for the August period using second-order DDM and are found, in aggregate, to be greater in magnitude by 42%. When evaluated during hours when ozone concentrations exceed 0.060 ppm, the maximum increases in ozone are higher than decreases by 82%. The spatial extent of ozone increase in both cases is about triple that of reduction.     

The influence of untreated wastewater to aquatic communities in the Balatuin River,The Philippines

A risk assessment of chemical constituents in rivers that receive untreated wastewater should take into account the adverse effects of increased biological oxygen demand (BOD), ammonia and reduced dissolved oxygen (DO). This concept was tested via a field study in the Balatuin River, The Philippines, where the influence of physical and chemical factors, including the consumer product chemical linear alkylbenezene sulfonate (LAS), to aquatic communities (algae, invertebrates, fish) was determined. Periphytic algae were found to be insensitive to high BOD (>10 mg/l) and ammonia (>0.01 mg unionized NH(3)/l), concentrations from organically enriched untreated wastewater discharges. However, taxa richness and abundance of macroinvertebrates were influenced greatly by the discharges. Where BOD and ammonia concentrations were elevated, the dominant taxa were oligochaete worms and chironominds. Fish and crustaceans (freshwater crabs and prawns) were found only in sites with the least BOD concentrations (furthest upstream and downstream). The maximum concentration of LAS (0.122 mg/l) was less than that expected to affect 5% of taxa (0.245 mg/l), whereas exceedences of DO and ammonia criteria were observed in several sites. The lack of recovery observed was attributed to influences of low DO, high ammonia and poor colonization from upstream and downstream reaches due to organically-enriched discharges     

Individual and mixture toxicity of three pesticides; atrazine,chlorpyrifos, and chlorothalonil to the marine phytoplankton species Dunaliella tertiolecta

This study analyzed the toxicity of three pesticides (the herbicide atrazine, the insecticide chlorpyrifos and the fungicide chlorothalonil) individually, and in two mixtures (atrazine and chlorpyrifos; atrazine and chlorothalonil) to the marine phytoplankton species Dunaliella tertiolecta (Chlorophyta). A standard 96 h static algal bioassay was used to determine pesticide effects on the population growth rate of D. tertiolecta. Mixture toxicity was assessed using the additive index approach. Atrazine and chlorothalonil concentrations > or = 25 microg/L and 33.3 microg/L, respectively, caused significant decreases in D. tertiolecta population growth rate. At much higher concentrations (> or = 400 microg/L) chlorpyrifos also elicited a significant effect on D. tertiolecta population growth rate, but toxicity would not be expected at typical environmental concentrations. The population growth rate EC50 values determined for D. tertiolecta were 64 microg/L for chlorothalonil, 69 microg/L for atrazine, and 769 microg/L for chlorpyrifos. Atrazine and chlorpyrifos in mixture displayed additive toxicity, whereas atrazine and chlorothalonil in mixture had a synergistic effect. The toxicity of atrazine and chlorothalonil combined was approximately 2 times greater than that of the individual chemicals. Therefore, decreases in phytoplankton populations resulting from pesticide exposure could occur at lower than expected concentrations in aquatic systems where atrazine and chlorothalonil are present in mixture. Detrimental effects on phytoplankton population growth rate could impact nutrient cycling rates and food availability to higher trophic levels. Characterizing the toxicity of chemical mixtures likely to be encountered in the environment may benefit the pesticide registration and regulation process.